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Tuesday 21 June 2016

Third place at Euro 2016: How it works, who plays whom and who's set to grab a spot

Only eight of the 24 sides at Euro 2016 will be knocked out after the group stage, meaning that four of the six third-placed teams will make the last-16 - but how does it all work? We present the qualifying permutations in full.
The expansion of the tournament for this Euro 2016 edition has been a success on the pitch - however, it has left one confusing point of business: how do the 24 teams get cut down to 16? Here's the explanation:

TEAMS QUALIFIED FOR LAST 16


France - Winners Group A
Switzerland - Runners-up Group A
Wales - Winners Group B
England - Runners-up Group B
Slovakia - Third place Group B
Germany - Winners Group C
Poland - Runners-up Group C
Northern Ireland  - Third place Group C
Spain - 1st-3rd Group D
Croatia - 1st-3rd Group D
Italy - Winners Group E
Hungary - 1st-3rd Group F


THE FOUR BEST THIRD PLACE TEAMS

The top two teams from each group go through, plus the four best-ranked third-placed teams.
Once the group stage is over, a table is created containing just the third-placed sides. Here's what it looks like at present (Wikipedia). - Slovakia andNorthern Ireland are guaranteed to finish in the top four in this table.



Teams are ranked by:

Points
Goal difference
Goals scored
Fair play (3 pts for a red card, 1 pt for a yellow, lowest score wins)
UEFA team coefficient

The table below suggests that three points and a respectable goal difference gives you a better than even chance of going through.




WHO WILL THOSE QUALIFIERS PLAY IN THE LAST 16?

It gets a bit complicated here - four group winners (Groups A-D) will face third-place teams. Two group winners (Groups E-F) face two runners-up (Groups D-E).
The remaining four runners-up (Groups A,B,C,F) play each other,
We've highlighted matches involving third-place teams below, to make it easy for you to see where they sit in the knockout phase:




THAT'S STILL NOT QUITE TELLING US WHO WILL PLAY WHO...

No, not quite, but bear with us because the next bit gets really complicated.
To make it simpler, UEFA give each of the eight last-16 matches a number, as follows, and have listed the matches like this:

Match 1: Runner-up Group A v Runner-up Group C
Match 2: Winner Group D v 3rd Group B / E / F
Match 3: Winner Group B v 3rd Group A / C / D
Match 4: Winner Group F v Runner-up Group E
Match 5: Winner Group C v 3rd Group A / B / F
Match 6: Winner Group E v Runner-up Group D
Match 7: Winner Group A v 3rd Group C / D / E
Match 8: Runner-up Group B v Runner-up Group F

Matches 1, 4, 6 and 8 are simple, since they involve only group winners or runners-up. Matches 2, 3, 5 and 7 are then filled up in turn by third-place qualifiers.

SO HOW ARE THE THIRD-PLACE TEAMS SORTED?

Looking at the list above, you might think that it would be a simple case of Match 2 being Group D's winners against Group B's third-placed side - unless they didn't make it, in which case it'd be against Group E's third-placed side; and if they didn't make it either, then the third-placed side in Group F. If you did think that, you would be sensible - but mistaken.
Instead, UEFA have cooked up a table which doesn't appear to make a lot of sense, but which tries to avoid having Group stage opponents coming up against each other before the semi-finals.
It's a case of referring to this table to determine who will play whom - a complication which means that it'll be largely impossible to guess who will play anyone in the last-16 until the final whistle has blown in the final group stage match:




MY WORD...

Indeed. And that's not the only issue.

MORE PROBLEMS?

Indeed - there are:
- It's highly possible that a third-placed team who make the semi-finals will face a side they met in the group stage
- It all seems deeply unfair on the winners of Group E and Group F, and the runners-up of Group D and Group E, who theoretically face tougher last-16 matches than teams from any other groups.
- It's all a serious waste of brain power.




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